It has been almost a year since the launch of GPT-4 in March 2023. OpenAI did announce a faster and improved GPT-4 Turbo model in November 2023, but there has been no sign of GPT-5 on the horizon. We have already seen how capable GPT-4 has become in various tasks, including image analysis, Code Interpreter, and more. Now, AI aficionados are waiting to learn about the upcoming OpenAI model, GPT-5, the possibility of AGI, and more. So to find in-depth information about GPT-5’s release date and other expected features, follow our explainer below.
GPT-5 Speculated Release Date
When GPT-4 was released in March 2023, it was expected that OpenAI would release its next-generation model by December 2023. However, we have already entered 2024, but there is no official news on the GPT-5 launch by OpenAI. The company did file a trademark for GPT-5 on July 18, 2023, with the USPTO, but following that, there has been no concrete announcement.
Just recently, speaking at the World Economic Forum on January 17, 2024, Sam Altman told Ina Fried of Axios that his top priority right now is launching the new model, likely referring to GPT-5. He further added that the next big model “will be able to do a lot, lot more.“
Apart from that, Altman stressed “generalized intelligence” on GPT-5 and how it will make the new model smarter than what we already have. And in a recent podcast with Bill Gates, Sam Altman spilled the beans on new capabilities that are coming to GPT-5. Advanced reasoning, better image analysis, and video capabilities are likely coming to GPT-5.
Moreover, OpenAI is working to make the next generation of ChatGPT more customizable and personalized. He added,
“Customizability and personalization will also be very important. People want very different things out of GPT-4: different styles, different sets of assumptions. We’ll make all that possible, and then also the ability to have it use your own data. The ability to know about you, your email, your calendar, how you like appointments booked, connected to other outside data sources, all of that.”
So while we don’t know the exact release date of GPT-5, OpenAI will be potentially looking to release GPT-5 sometime in 2024, perhaps at the tail end of the year. With the release of the Gemini model and Gemini 1.5 Pro, Google has already put some pressure on OpenAI. In addition, Anthropic launched its Claude 3 models recently, and the Opus model has already shown great promise.
Recommended Articles
I Got Access to Gemini 1.5 Pro, and It’s Better Than GPT-4 and Gemini 1.0 Ultra
Feb 28, 2024
Claude 3 Opus vs GPT-4 vs Gemini 1.5 Pro AI Models Tested
Mar 6, 2024
Not to mention, Mark Zuckerberg has said that Llama 3 is currently under training and it will be one of the leading AI models in the industry. So yes, 2024 would be a safe bet for GPT-5’s release as it will allow OpenAI to continue its lead in the AI race.
That said, a recent leak suggests that OpenAI may launch an intermediate GPT-4.5 Turbo model first and then may introduce the GPT-5 model by the end of the year. Apart from that, OpenAI also introduced Sora, an incredible text-to-video model. The company is currently red-teaming with experts to evaluate the model for harms and risks. Again, OpenAI has a lot on its plate right now, and we may see multiple launches of big AI models in 2024.
Expected GPT-5 Features and Capabilities
Reduced Hallucination
The hot talk in the industry is that GPT-5 will achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), but we will come to that later on in detail. Besides that, GPT-5 is supposed to reduce the inference time, enhance efficiency, bring down further hallucinations, and a lot more. Let’s start with hallucination, one of the key reasons why most users don’t readily believe in AI models.
According to OpenAI, GPT-4 scored 40% higher than GPT-3.5 in internal adversarially-designed factual evaluations under all nine categories. Now, GPT-4 is 82% less likely to respond to inaccurate and disallowed content. It’s very close to touching the 80% mark in accuracy tests across categories. That’s a huge leap in combating hallucination.
Now, it’s expected that OpenAI would reduce hallucination to less than 10% in GPT-5, which would be huge for making LLM models trustworthy. In a conversation with Bill Gates, Sam Altman said that the company is working to improve accuracy to make ChatGPT a reliable AI chatbot. In my personal experience, the GPT-4 model has given factual responses mostly. So it’s highly likely that GPT-5 will hallucinate even less than GPT-4.
Compute-efficient Model
Next, we know that GPT-4 is expensive to run ($0.03 per 1K tokens) and the inference time is also higher. Whereas, the older GPT-3.5-turbo model is 30x cheaper ($0.0010 per 1K tokens) than GPT-4. OpenAI has managed to improve the performance and reduce the cost with the recent GPT-4 Turbo ($0.01 per 1K tokens) model, but it’s still not available on ChatGPT, perhaps due to a lack of compute resources.
According to a recent SemiAnalysis report, GPT-4 is not one dense model, but based on the “Mixture of Experts” architecture. It means that GPT-4 uses 16 different models for different tasks and has 1.8 trillion parameters.
With such a huge infrastructure, it becomes very costly to run and maintain the GPT-4 model. In our recent explainer on Google’s PaLM 2 model, we found that PaLM 2 is quite small in size, and that results in quick performance. Same is the case with Google’s latest Gemini models which are trained from the ground up to be a multimodal model with text, image, audio, video, and code, all trained together to build a powerful AI system.
Recommended Articles
Google PaLM 2 AI Model: Everything You Need to Know
May 15, 2023
A recent report by CNBC confirmed that PaLM 2 is trained on 340 billion parameters, which is far less than GPT-4’s large parameter size. Google even went on to say that bigger is not always better and research creativity is the key to making great models.
So if OpenAI wants to make its upcoming models compute-optimal, it must find new creative ways to reduce the size of the model while maintaining the output quality.
A huge chunk of OpenAI revenue comes from enterprises and businesses, so yeah, GPT-5 must not only be cheaper but also faster to return output. Developers are already berating the fact that GPT-4 API calls frequently stop responding and they are forced to use GPT-3.5 in production. So it must be on OpenAI’s wishlist to improve performance in the upcoming GPT-5 model.
Multisensory AI Model
Sure, GPT-4 is a multimodal AI model, but currently, it deals with only two types of data i.e. images and texts. However, with GPT-5, OpenAI may take a big leap and make the multimodal ability even more broad. It may also deal with text, audio, images, videos, depth data, and temperature.
It would be able to interlink data streams from different modalities to create an embedding space. In the podcast with Bill Gates, Sam Altman stated that the OpenAI team is working to add video capabilities to ChatGPT so there is that.
Recently, Meta released ImageBind, an AI model that combines data from six different modalities and open-sourced it for research purposes. In this space, OpenAI has not revealed much, but the company does have some strong foundation models for vision analysis and image generation.
OpenAI has also developed CLIP (Contrastive Language–Image Pretraining) for analyzing images and DALL-E 3, a popular Midjourney alternative that can generate images from textual descriptions.
Recommended Articles
How to Use DALL-E 3 in ChatGPT to Make AI Images
Oct 16, 2023
It’s an area of ongoing research and its applications are still not clear. According to Meta, it can be used to design and create immersive content for virtual reality. We need to wait and see what OpenAI does in this space and if we will see more AI applications across various multimodalities with the release of GPT-5.
Long Term Memory
With the release of GPT-4, OpenAI initially brought a maximum context length of 32K tokens, which costs $0.06 per 1K token. Seeing the competition, Anthropic increased the context window from 9K to 100K tokens in its Claude AI chatbot in May 2023. Now, OpenAI has increased the context length to 128K with the launch of GPT-4 Turbo. Without losing a beat, Anthropic introduced a 200K context window following the launch of GPT-4 Turbo.
Now, it’s expected that OpenAI might one-up the competition again and may bring even larger context length with the launch of GPT-5. The GPT-4.5 Turbo leak already shows that it will support a context window of 256K tokens.
This can help in making AI characters and friends who remember your persona and memories that can last for years. Apart from that, you can load libraries of books and text documents in a single context window. There can be various new AI applications due to long-term memory support and GPT-5 can make that possible.
Reasonable Pricing of GPT-5
We already know that GPT-4 is quite expensive to use in comparison to the GPT-3.5-turbo model. Recently, OpenAI slashed the pricing of both models and released GPT-4 with 32K context length and GPT-3.5-turbo with 16K context length. For GPT-4 with 32K context length, it costs around $0.12/1k sampled tokens. The GPT-4 Turbo model is, however, cheaper. It costs $0.03 per 1K tokens for the 128K context length.
In comparison, the recently-released Claude 2.1 by Anthropic AI is priced close to $0.02 to generate 1,000 words, and mind you, it supports a much larger context length of 200K.
So if OpenAI wants developers to adopt GPT-5 in the future, the company must keep the pricing competitive and reasonable. As we discussed above, due to GPT-4’s massive infrastructure of mixed models, the compute cost is pretty high. OpenAI will have to find a way to create a dense model that is more capable and advanced than the current GPT-4 model.
GPT-5 Release: Fear of AGI?
In February 2023, Sam Altman wrote a blog on AGI and how it can benefit all of humanity. AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), as the name suggests, is the next generation of AI systems that is generally smarter than humans. It’s being said that OpenAI’s upcoming model GPT-5 will achieve AGI, and it seems like there is some truth in that.
We already have several autonomous AI agents like Auto-GPT and BabyAGI, which are based on GPT-4 and can make decisions on their own and come up with reasonable conclusions. It’s entirely possible that some version of AGI may be deployed with GPT-5.
In the blog, Altman says “We believe we have to continuously learn and adapt by deploying less powerful versions of the technology in order to minimize ‘one shot to get it right’ scenarios” while also acknowledging “massive risks” in navigating powerful systems like AGI. Before the recent Senate hearing, Sam Altman also urged US lawmakers for regulations around newer AI systems.
In the hearing, Altman said, “I think if this technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong. And we want to be vocal about that.” Further, he added, “We want to work with the government to prevent that from happening.” For some time, OpenAI has become quite vocal about regulations on newer AI systems that would be highly powerful and intelligent.
Do note that Altman is seeking safety regulation around incredibly powerful AI systems and not open-source models or AI models developed by small startups.
It should be worth noting that Elon Musk and other prominent personalities, including Steve Wozniak, Andrew Yang, and Yuval Noah Harari, et al called for a pause on giant AI experiments, back in March 2023. Since then, there has been a wide pushback against AGI and newer AI systems — more powerful than GPT-4.
Recently, Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against OpenAI for becoming a closed-source AI company and said the company is developing AGI to maximize profits for Microsoft. Musk is seeking an injunction by the court to prevent OpenAI and Microsoft from cashing in on the AGI technology.
If OpenAI is indeed going to bring AGI capability to GPT-5, then expect more delay in its public release. Regulation would definitely kick in and work around safety and alignment would be scrutinized thoroughly. The good thing is that OpenAI already has a powerful GPT-4 model, and it’s continuously adding new features and capabilities.
OpenAI GPT-5: Future Stance
After the release of GPT-4, OpenAI has gotten increasingly secretive about its operations. It no longer shares research on the training dataset, architecture, hardware, training compute, and training method with the open-source community. It has been a strange flip for a company that was founded as a nonprofit (now it’s capped profit) based on the principles of free collaboration.
In March 2023, speaking with The Verge, Ilya Sutskever, the chief scientist of OpenAI said, “We were wrong. Flat out, we were wrong. If you believe, as we do, that at some point, AI — AGI — is going to be extremely, unbelievably potent, then it just does not make sense to open-source. It is a bad idea… I fully expect that in a few years, it’s going to be completely obvious to everyone that open-sourcing AI is just not wise.“
Now, it has become clear that neither GPT-4 nor the upcoming GPT-5 would be open-source to stay competitive in the AI race. However, Meta has been approaching AI development differently. Meta is releasing multiple AI models under its custom Llama 2 community license (some restrictions for commercial usage) and gaining traction among the open-source community. Zuckerberg even wants to make Meta’s AGI open-source in the future.
Recommended Articles
ChatGPT Turns One: A History of OpenAI’s Groundbreaking Chatbot
Nov 30, 2023
Sam Altman Back as OpenAI CEO: A Timeline of Conflict and Chaos
Nov 22, 2023
In summation, GPT-5 is likely going to be a frontier model that will push the boundary of what is really possible with AI. It seems likely that we might see some spark of AGI with the launch of GPT-5. And if that would be the case, OpenAI must get ready for tight regulation (and possible bans) around the world. As for GPT-5’s speculated release date, the safe bet would be sometime in 2024.
